January 30, 2026 | The C4 Strategy Desk
The "Dry Rock" hypothesis for 3I/ATLAS has been falsified by direct observation. The Neukart CO sublimation model faces Cascade Failure under thermodynamic scrutiny. The C4 Ablative Hybrid Engine remains the only model that accounts for:
Initial spectroscopic observations detected no water signature, leading to the "Dry Rock" classification. This hypothesis collapsed on January 7, 2026 when follow-up observations confirmed water production at ~40 kg/s.
"The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The Dry Rock model failed the first observational test."
Status: FALSIFIED
The Neukart model proposes CO sublimation as the primary driver of non-gravitational acceleration. While CO has been detected, the model faces two critical challenges:
CO sublimation produces exhaust velocities of ~0.4 km/s. The solar wind at 3I/ATLAS's current position exerts pressure equivalent to ~400 km/s. For CO sublimation to overcome this pressure and produce measurable non-gravitational acceleration, the mass loss rate would need to exceed 10,000 kg/s.
Observed mass loss: 40 kg/s (250x deficit)
Spectroscopic analysis reveals an Fe/Ni ratio of ~0.02:1, compared to Solar abundance of 1.8:1. This 90x enrichment of Nickel-62 requires foundry-grade metallurgical processing— a process that demands temperatures exceeding 1400°C.
The Neukart model proposes this occurred naturally in a cryogenic environment (-200°C). This is thermodynamically implausible without an active energy source.
"You cannot run a foundry in a freezer. The isotopic signature demands an explanation."
Status: UNDER THERMODYNAMIC STRESS
The C4 Ablative Hybrid Engine model proposes a dual-mode propulsion system:
This model accounts for:
If the Hybrid Engine model is correct, we predict a discontinuous drop in water/CO production within 48 hours of Jupiter perihelion (April 2026):
40 kg/s → <1 kg/s (within 48 hours)
This "Valve Closure" event will occur when the object completes its Jupiter energy harvest and no longer requires thermal management. This is a binary test.
Status: REMAINING VIABLE HYPOTHESIS
The observational data has systematically eliminated competing models. The Hybrid Hypothesis is not "proven"—it is the last model standing that accounts for all observed phenomena.
The April 2026 Valve Closure event will provide a binary falsification test. If the prediction fails, the Hybrid model collapses. If it succeeds, the implications are profound.
"We are not claiming victory. We are claiming survival. The data will decide."
All claims in this brief are derived from peer-reviewed submissions and open-access preprints. Audit the work: