New peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society proposes Hybrid Ablative Propulsion model and predicts two observable events for May 2026
When interstellar object 3I/ATLAS entered the inner solar system in 2024, astronomers expected it to behave like a typical comet—outgassing water and volatiles as it approached the Sun. Instead, the object exhibited four correlated anomalies that standard cometary models struggle to explain.
According to a new paper published in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society (Vol. 79, No. 3, March 2026), these anomalies include:
"These four observations are statistically correlated and point toward a single underlying mechanism," explains Kevin Thorsen Baird, lead author of the study and director of the C4 Institute. "Standard cometary models predict thermal lag and random outgassing. What we're seeing is something far more organized."
The paper proposes a Hybrid Ablative Propulsion model to resolve what Baird calls the "Efficiency Paradox"—the fact that 3I/ATLAS achieves measurable thrust with extraordinarily low mass loss rates (approximately 10⁻¹¹ kg/s in the propulsive jet, compared to ~40 kg/s in bulk thermal outgassing).
Unlike chemical rockets or ion drives, the proposed model describes a passive dual-mode system:
The model requires no combustion, no active injection systems, and no moving parts. Instead, it relies on a nickel-62 structural core (maximum nuclear binding energy per nucleon) and volatile reaction mass stored in an outer shell.
"This is not a conventional rocket," Baird emphasizes. "It's a thermodynamically passive system that uses solar heating as the energy source and magnetic fields to shape the exhaust geometry. The physics is unconventional, but it's internally consistent with the observed telemetry."
The paper includes two specific, falsifiable predictions that will be testable during 3I/ATLAS's closest approach to Jupiter in May 2026:
Observable: Abrupt cessation of anti-solar jet activity as 3I/ATLAS reaches maximum thermal stress near Jupiter perihelion.
Rationale: The Hybrid Ablative Drive model predicts that sustained solar heating will eventually deplete the volatile reaction mass reservoir, causing the collimated jet to "valve shut" when the H₂O supply is exhausted. This would manifest as a sudden drop in non-gravitational acceleration.
Observable: 90° plane change maneuver, rotating the orbital plane from ecliptic-aligned to polar (perpendicular to the solar system plane).
Rationale: A polar orbit would provide continuous, unobstructed line-of-sight to Earth without seasonal ecliptic interference—consistent with a surveillance or monitoring objective. This maneuver would require active thrust vectoring, not passive dynamics.
"These are not vague, qualitative forecasts," Baird notes. "They are binary, observable events with specific timelines. Either they happen, or they don't. If they don't happen, the model is falsified. That's how science works."
The observation window opens in May 2026, when multiple ground-based and space-based telescopes will be tracking 3I/ATLAS as it swings past Jupiter. The C4 Institute is coordinating with amateur and professional astronomers to monitor the object's trajectory and spectroscopic signature during this critical period.
The artificial origin hypothesis for 3I/ATLAS presented in this paper is speculative and is strictly subject to falsification by the incoming May 2026 observational data. The C4 Institute emphasizes that this work represents a testable scientific hypothesis, not a definitive conclusion. The purpose of publishing falsifiable predictions in advance is to demonstrate methodological rigor and commitment to the scientific method. If the predicted events do not occur, the hypothesis will be rejected.
The full paper, titled "Kinematic and Spectroscopic Constraints on the Origin of Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS: An Ablative Propulsion Model," is published in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol. 79, No. 3, March 2026.
The accepted author manuscript is available via Zenodo under a Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 license (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18735095). The published version is available at DOI: 10.59332/jbis-079-03-0038.
The C4 Institute is an independent research organization focused on publishing falsifiable predictions about anomalous phenomena before observational data arrives. The Institute's methodology emphasizes transparency, pre-registration of hypotheses, and rigorous tracking of prediction outcomes.
The Institute maintains a public prediction tracker at c4echo.com/predictions/3i-atlas, where all 50 predictions about 3I/ATLAS are documented with timestamps, data sources, and verification status.