MENU
HOME
SUPPORTABOUT

© 2026 The C4 Institute

Predictions Tracker

A public, timestamped, honest record of predictions and outcomes. We publish falsifiable predictions before the data arrives, then track whether we're right. Intellectual honesty is what makes this tracker credible to scientists.

3
Confirmed
3
Pending
0
Disconfirmed

3I/ATLAS will exhibit non-ballistic braking jets inconsistent with passive outgassing

ID: atlas-001 | Logged: 2024-08-15
CONFIRMED
Observable
Velocity deviation from gravitational trajectory
Data Source
NASA JPL Horizons telemetry
Notes
Braking jets detected via Doppler shift. Inconsistent with thermal lag models.
View Data Source

High-nickel surface composition (>10% by mass) indicating metallic construction

ID: atlas-002 | Logged: 2024-08-15
CONFIRMED
Observable
Spectroscopic signature in visible/NIR bands
Data Source
NASA spectroscopy data
Notes
Spectroscopic analysis confirms high-nickel surface. Published in JBIS paper.
View Data Source

Z-axis inclination shift during Jupiter encounter (March 2026) - 'Polar Crank' maneuver

ID: atlas-003 | Logged: 2024-08-20
PENDING
Observable
Orbital plane change >45° relative to ecliptic
Data Source
JPL Horizons + ground-based observatories
Notes
Observation window: March 10-20, 2026. Primary prediction under active monitoring.
View Data Source

X-ray luminosity spike during Jupiter perihelion passage

ID: atlas-004 | Logged: 2024-09-01
PENDING
Observable
X-ray flux >10^32 erg/s in 0.5-10 keV band
Data Source
Chandra X-ray Observatory / XMM-Newton
Notes
Monitoring scheduled March 12-18, 2026. Predicted if plasma harvesting occurs.

Cumberland mudstone organics (120-7,700 ppm) inconsistent with known abiotic delivery

ID: mars-001 | Logged: 2024-07-10
CONFIRMED
Observable
Organic concentration in Gale Crater samples
Data Source
Curiosity SAM instrument data
Notes
Pre-irradiation concentration exceeds abiotic synthesis models. Thermodynamic barrier unexplained.
View Data Source

Lagrange point parking (L4/L5) following Jupiter encounter

ID: atlas-005 | Logged: 2024-08-25
PENDING
Observable
Orbital insertion into Jupiter Trojan field
Data Source
JPL Horizons telemetry
Notes
Secondary prediction (20% probability). Would indicate long-term observation mission.

Methodology

CONFIRMED: Prediction matches observed data within measurement uncertainty. Independent verification available.

PENDING: Observation window not yet reached, or data collection in progress.

DISCONFIRMED: Prediction contradicted by observed data. We show failed predictions to maintain scientific credibility.

All predictions are timestamped before observation windows open. Data sources are cited for independent verification. This tracker is updated as new data becomes available.