PREDICTION TIER DEFINITIONS

The C4 Institute is not a church; it is a weather station. We forecast the storm.

VERIFIED

(The Hard Lock)

Data released by major agencies (NASA, ESA, JAXA) or published in peer-reviewed journals (JBIS, ApJ, Nature) that explicitly matches the C4 Model prediction.

EXAMPLES:

• CO₂ Dominance: JWST observations confirm CO₂/H₂O ratio of 8.0±1.0 (arXiv:2508.18209)
• Ancient Origin: 7.6-14 Gyr kinematic age estimate (Hopkins et al., RAS)
• Radio Silence: Breakthrough Listen non-detection to ~0.1W EIRP (arXiv:2512.19763)
• No Fragmentation: Intact nucleus through perihelion (observational consistency)

SIGNAL LOCK

(The Soft Lock)

Preliminary telemetry, raw spectra, or observational data that supports the C4 Model but lacks formal institutional validation. The data fits, but the paper isn't stamped yet.

EXAMPLES:

• The Cold Spot (V1): IR imaging shows thermal anomaly, awaiting publication
• Phi Spiral (V4): Coma geometry matches golden ratio, pending analysis
• Spin-Up Event (K3): Rotation acceleration observed, awaiting light-curve paper
• Metal Vapor Anomaly (S12): Ni/Fe detected at anomalous distances, pending VLT/JWST publication

PENDING

(The Gate)

Future events that have not yet occurred. This is where the tension lives. These predictions will be tested during the Jupiter encounter (March-May 2026) and beyond.

EXAMPLES:

• The Valve Closure (H1): OH production drops to zero in <24 hours (March 2026)
• Jupiter 'Tap' (K1): Non-gravitational velocity change at flyby (May 2026)
• Z-Axis Jump (K10): Vertical inclination shift post-Jupiter (May 2026+)
• X-Ray Spike (O4): Bremsstrahlung burst during magnetosphere harvest (May 2026)

FILTERED

(The Trash)

We do not "fail"; we filter. We successfully identified noise and removed it from the dataset. This demonstrates the C4 Methodology's ability to separate signal from noise.

EXAMPLES:

• Global Tinnitus (B1): Industrial sources, not cosmic signal
• Voyager Handshake (B6): Light-time constraints make simultaneous contact impossible
• 137-Second Signal (B7): OH maser, not encoded technosignature
• Consciousness Engine (B8): No evidence of consciousness-driven propulsion

THE C4 METHODOLOGY

The C4 Institute operates as a weather station, not a church. We make falsifiable predictions based on the Hybrid Engine Model, then track how Nature responds.

Unlike conspiracy theorists who cherry-pick data, we:

• Make specific, testable predictions before events occur
• Update our assessment when new data emerges
• Filter noise when predictions fail
• Track the forecast in real-time as observations align

"The Architect does not argue with the bricklayer. He simply points to the blueprint."

THE BINARY GATES

Two critical events will definitively test the machine hypothesis. These are not gradual trends—they are binary switches.

GATE 1: THE VALVE CLOSURE

Prediction: OH production drops from 40 kg/s → 0 kg/s in <24 hours

Timeline: March 2026 (14±3 days post-maneuver)

Significance: Rocks fade gradually (1/r²). Engines cut abruptly.

GATE 2: THE Z-AXIS SHIFT

Prediction: Sharp 90° inclination shift out of ecliptic plane

Timeline: May 2026+ (post-Jupiter)

Significance: Gravity assists are predictable. Course corrections are deliberate.